Preprints and Publications

Book

Gustafson, P. (2003). Measurement Error and Misclassification in Statistics and Epidemiology: Impacts and Bayesian Adjustments. Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.

Book Links: Info from Publisher , Software/Data/Errata Page

Articles

In review process

Gustafson, P. "Bayesian inference in partially identified models: Is the shape of the posterior density useful?" Tech. Report version of Sept. 2011

Gustafson, P. "On the behavior of Bayesian credible intervals in partially identified models." Tech. Report version of Sept. 2011

2011 and in-press

Liu, J. and Gustafson, P. Regression with Fractional Polynomials when interactions are erroneously omitted Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, to appear.

McCandless LC, Gustafson P, Levy AR, Richardson S. Hierarchical priors for bias parameters in Bayesian sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding. Statistics in Medicine, to appear.

Gustafson, P. "Double-robust estimators: Slightly more Bayesian than meets the eye?" International Journal of Biostatistics, to appear.

MacLehose R. and Gustafson P. Is probabilistic bias analysis approximately Bayesian? Epidemiology, to appear.

Gustafson P. and Greenland S. Misclassification. Handbook of Epidemiology, 2nd Ed., to appear.

Liu, J. and Gustafson, P. "On the detectability of different forms of interaction in regression models." Metrika, to appear. Earlier version of September 2008 (pdf). Here is R code for doing the power calculations in the cases of independent and dependent predictors. Also, here are further plots omitted from the manuscript for the sake of brevity.

Gustafson, P. and Burstyn, I. (2011). "Bayesian inference of gene-environment interaction from incomplete data: what happens when information on environment is disjoint from data on gene and disease?" Statistics in Medicine 30, 877-889. An earlier technical report of September 2009 contains additional material. Also, here are the supplementary figures, and the associated R code .

Espino-Hernandez, G., Gustafson, P. and Burstyn, I. (2011). "Bayesian adjustment for measurement error in continuous exposures in an individually matched case-control study." BMC Medical Research Methodology 11, article 67.

Hossain, S. and Gustafson, P. (2011). "Assessing large sample bias in misspecified model scenarios with reference to exposure model misspecification in errors--in--variables regression: A new computational approach." Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 141, 1161-1169.

2010

Gustafson, P., McCandless, L.C., Levy, A.R., and Richardson, S. (2010). "Simplified Bayesian sensitivity analysis for mismeasured and unobserved confounders." Biometrics 66, 1129-1137.

Gustafson, P. (2010). "Bayesian inference for partially identified models." International Journal of Biostatistics 6 (issue 2, article 17, 17 pages).

Lefebvre, G. and Gustafson, P. (2010). "Impact of outcome model misspecification on regression and doubly-robust inverse probability to estimate causal effect." International Journal of Biostatistics 6 (issue 2, article 15, 25 pages). Web Appendix.

Chu, R., Gustafson, P., and Le, N. (2010) "Bayesian adjustment for exposure misclassification in case-control studies." Statistics in Medicine 29, 994-1003. Here is the associated R code.

Gustafson, P. and McCandless, L. (2010). Probabilistic approaches to better quantifying the results of epidemiologic studies. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 7, 1520-1539. Here is the associated R code .

Johnston, K., Levy, A., Lima, V., Hogg, R., Tyndall, M., Gustafson, P., Briggs, A., Montaner, J. (2010). Expanding access to HAART: a cost-effective approach for treating and preventing HIV. AIDS 24, 1929-1935.

2009

Gustafson, P. and Greenland, S. (2009). "Interval estimation for messy observational data." Statistical Science 24, 328-342.

Gustafson, P. (2009). "What are the limits of posterior distributions arising from nonidentified models, and why should we care?" Journal of the American Statistical Association 104, 1682-1695. Technical Report Version of May 2009.

Liu, J., Gustafson, P., Cherry, N., Burstyn, I. (2009). "Bayesian analysis of a matched case-control study with expert prior information on both the misclassification of exposure and the exposure-disease association." Statistics in Medicine 28, 3411-3423.

Hossain, S. and Gustafson, P. (2009). "Bayesian adjustment for covariate measurement errors: a flexible parametric approach." Statistics in Medicine 28, 1580-1600.

McCandless, L., Gustafson, P., Austin, P.C. and Levy, A.R. (2009). "Covariate balance in a Bayesian propensity score analysis of beta-blocker therapy in heart failure patients." Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations 6:5.

McCandless, L, Gustafson, P. and Austin, P.C. (2009). "Bayesian propensity score analysis." Sxstatistics in Medicine 28, 94-112.

2008

Gustafson, P. and Lefebvre, G. (2008). "Bayesian multinomial regression with class-specific predictor selection." Annals of Applied Statistics 2, 1478-1502. Here is code associated with this paper.

Ferrari, P., Carroll, R.J., Gustafson, P. and Riboli E. (2008). "A Bayesian model for multicenter studies with exposures measured with error." Statistics in Medicine 28, 6037-6054.

Liu, J. and Gustafson, P. (2008). "Average effects and omitted interactions in linear regression models." International Statistical Review 76, 419-432.

Johnston, K., Gustafson, P., Levy, A.R., and Grootendorst, P. (2008). "Use of instrumental variables in the analysis of generalized linear models in the presence of unmeasured confounding with applications to epidemiological research." Statistics in Medicine 27, 1539-1556.

McCandless, L.C., Gustafson, P., Levy, A.R. (2008). "A sensitivity analysis using information about measured confounders yielded improved assessments of uncertainty from unmeasured confounding." Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 61, 247-255.

2007

Gustafson, P. (2007). "Measurement error modeling with an approximate instrumental variable." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 69, 797-815. Here are the additional figures and R code associated with this paper.

McNab, Y.C. and Gustafson, P. (2007). "Regression B-spline smoothing in Bayesian disease mapping, with an application to patient safety surveillance." Statistics in Medicine 26, 4455-4474.

Walker, L.J., Gustafson, P., and Frimer, J.A. (2007). "The application of Bayesian analysis to issues in developmental research." International Journal of Behavioral Development 31, 366-373. Here is the R code which fits the longitudinal multinomial model described in this paper.

Gustafson, P. and Siddarth, S. (2007). Describing the dynamics of attention to TV commercials: a hierarchical Bayes analysis of the time to zap an ad. Journal of Applied Statistics 34, 585-609.

McCandless, L.C., Gustafson, P., Levy, A.R. (2007). "Bayesian sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding in observational studies." Statistics in Medicine 26, 2331-2347.

Gustafson, P. (2007). "On robustness and model flexibility in survival analysis: transformed hazards models and average effects." Biometrics 63, 69-77. Here are some supplementary results (pdf) and the R function which implements fitting of the transformed hazard model.

2006

Gustafson, P., Hossain, S., and MacNab, Y. (2006). "Conservative priors for hierarchical models." Canadian Journal of Statistics 34, 377-390. Here are some supplementary results not shown in the manuscript, on the application of the conservative prior to curve-fitting.

Gustafson, P. (2006). "Sample size implications when biases are modelled rather than ignored." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 169, 883-902.

Gustafson, P. and Greenland, S. (2006). "The performance of random coefficient regression in accounting for residual confounding." Biometrics 62, 760-768.

Gustafson, P. and Greenland, S. (2006). "Curious phenomena in Bayesian adjustment for exposure misclassification." Statistics in Medicine 25, 87-103.

Greenland, S. and Gustafson, P. (2006). "Accounting for independent nondifferential misclassification does not increase certainty than an observed association is in the correct direction." American Journal of Epidemiology 164, 63-68.

MacNab, Y.C., Kmetic, A., Gustafson, P., Sheps, S. (2006). "An innovative application of Bayesian disease mapping methods to patient safety research: a Canadian adverse medical event study" Statistics in Medicine 25, 3960-3980.

Synnes, A.R., MacNab,Y.C., Qiu, Z., Ohlsson, A., Gustafson, P., Dean, C.B., Lee, S.K. (2006). "Neonatal Intensive Care Unit Characteristics Affect the Incidence of Severe Intraventricular Hemorrhage." Medical Care 44, 754-759.

2005

Gustafson, P., Hossain, S., McCandless, L. (2005). "Innovative Bayesian methods for biostatistics and epidemiology." In Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 25: Bayesian Thinking, Modeling and Computation (D. Dey and C.R. Rao, Eds.), Elsevier.

Gustafson, P. (2005). On model expansion, model contraction, identifiability, and prior information: two illustrative scenarios involving mismeasured variables" (with discussion). Statistical Science 20, 111-140.

Gustafson, P., Kazi, A.M.R., and Levy, A.R. (2005). "Extending logistic regression to model diffuse interactions." Statistics in Medicine, 24, 2089-2104. A related document is Kazi's M.Sc. thesis (gzipped postsript). R functions diffuse1() and diffuse2() implement MCMC fitting of these models.

Gustafson, P. (2005). "The utility of prior information and stratification for parameter estimation with two screening tests but no gold standard." xs Statistics in Medicine 24, 1203-1217. Some supplementary results not shown in the manuscript are available: postscript or pdf

MacNab, Y.C., Qiu, Z., Gustafson, P., Dean, C.B., Ohlsson, A., Lee, S.K. (2005). "Hierarchical Bayes analysis of multilevel health services data: A Canadian neonatal mortality study." Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology 5, 5-26.

Earlier

MacNab, Y.C., Farrell, P.J., Gustafson, P., and Wen, S.(2004). "Estimation in Bayesian disease mapping." Biometrics 60, 865-873.

Gustafson, P., MacNab, Y.C., and Wen, S. (2004). "On the value of derivative evaluations and random walk suppression in Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms." Statistics and Computing 14, 23-38.

Gustafson, P. and Clarke, B. (2004). "Decomposing posterior variance" Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 119, 311-327.

Gustafson, P. and Walker, L.J. (2003). "An extension of the Dirichlet prior for the analysis of longitudinal multinomial data." Journal of Applied Statistics 30, 293-310.

Gustafson, P., Aeschliman, D., and Levy, A.R. (2003). "A simple approach to fitting Bayesian survival models." Lifetime Data Analysis 9, 5-19.

Carbonetto, P., de Freitas, N., Gustafson, P., and Thompson, N. (2003). "Bayesian feature weighting for unsupervised learning, with application to object recognition." Proceedings of the Ninth International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics.

Gustafson, P. and Le, N.D. (2002). "Comparing the effects of continuous and discrete covariate mismeasurement, with emphasis on the dichtomization of mismeasured predictors." Biometrics 58, 878-887.

Gustafson, P. (2002). "On the simultaneous effects of model misspecification and errors-in-variables." Canadian Journal of Statistics 30, 463-474.

Gustafson, P, Le, N.D., and Vallee, M. (2002). "A Bayesian approach to case-control studies with errors in covariables." Biostatistics 3, 229-243.

Alqallaf, F. and Gustafson, P. (2001). "On cross-validation of Bayesian models." Canadian Journal of Statistics 29, 333-340.

Gustafson. P., Le, N.D., and Saskin, R. (2001). "Case-control analysis with partial knowledge of exposure misclassification probabilities." Biometrics 57, 598-609.

Gustafson, P. (2001). "On measuring sensitivity to parametric model misspecification." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 63, 81-94.

Walker, L.J., Gustafson, P., and Hennig, K.H. (2001). "The consolidation/transition model in moral reasoning development." Developmental Psychology 37, 187-197.

Gustafson, P. (2000). "Bayesian regression modelling with interactions and smooth effects." Journal of the American Statistical Association 95, 795-806.

Gustafson, P. (2000). "Local robustness in Bayesian analysis." In Robust Bayesian Analysis, (D. Rios Insua and F. Ruggeri, eds.). New York: Springer-Verlag, 71-88.

Gustafson, P., Le, N., Vallee, M. (2000). "Parametric Bayesian analysis of case-control data with imprecise exposure measurements." Statistics and Probability Letters 47, 357-363.

Gustafson, P. (1998). "A guided walk Metropolis algorithm." Statistics and Computing 8, 357-364.

Gustafson, P. (1998). "Flexible Bayesian modelling for survival data." Lifetime Data Analysis 4, 281-299.

Clarke, B. and Gustafson, P. (1998). "On the overall sensitivity of the posterior distribution to its inputs." Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 71, 137-150.

Gustafson, P. (1997). "Large hierarchical Bayesian analysis of multivariate survival data." Biometrics 53, 230-242.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "Local sensitivity of inferences to prior marginals." Journal of the American Statistical Association 91, 774-781.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "Local sensitivity of posterior expectations." Annals of Statistics 24, 174-195.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "The effect of mixing distribution misspecification in conjugate mixture models." Canadian Journal of Statistics 24, 307-318.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "Model influence functions based on mixtures." Canadian Journal of Statistics 24, 535-548.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "Robustness considerations in Bayesian analysis." Statistical Methods in Medical Research 5, 357-373.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "Aspects of Bayesian robustness in hierarchical models." In Proceedings of the Workshop on Bayesian Robustness, May 1995, Rimini, Italy, Berger, J.O., Betro, B., Moreno, E., Pericchi, L.R., Ruggeri, F., Salinetti, G., Wasserman, (Eds.), pp. 63-77. IMS Lecture Notes-Monograph Series, Volume 29.

Gustafson, P., Srinivasan, C., and Wasserman, L. (1996). "Local sensitivity analysis." In Bayesian Statistics 5. Proceedings of the Fifth Valencia International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, Bernardo, J.M., Berger, J.O., Dawid, A.P., Smith, A.F.M. (Eds.), pp. 197-210. Oxford University Press.

Gustafson, P. (1995). "A Bayesian analysis of bivariate survival data from a multicentre cancer clinical trial." Statistics in Medicine 14, 2523-2535.

Gustafson, P. and Wasserman, L. (1995). "Local sensitivity diagnostics for Bayesian inference." Annals of Statistics 23, 2153-2167.