Gustafson P. (2015). Bayesian Inference in Partially Identified Models: Exploring the Limits of Limited Data. Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.

Gustafson P. (2003). Measurement Error and Misclassification in Statistics and Epidemiology: Impacts and Bayesian Adjustments. Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.

Software/Data/Errata Page


2017 and Early-View

McCandless LC, Gustafson P. A comparison of Bayesian and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding. Statistics in Medicine, early-view.

Karim ME, Petkau J, Gustafson P, Platt RW, Tremlett H and the BeAMS study group. Comparison of statistical approaches dealing with time-dependent confounding in drug effectiveness studies. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, early-view.

Karim ME, Petkau J, Gustafson P, Tremlett H and the BeAMS study group. On the application of statistical learning approaches to construct inverse probability weights in marginal structural Cox models: Hedging against weight-model misspecification. Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, early-view.

Islam N, Krajden M, Shoveller J, Gustafson P, Gilbert M, Buxton JA, Wong J, Tyndall MW, Janjua NZ and the BC-HTC team. Incidence, risk factors, and prevention of hepatitis C reinfection: A population-based cohort study. The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, eary-view.

Islam N, Krajden M, Gilbert M, Gustafson P, Yu A, Kuo M, Chong M, Alvarez M, Wong J, Tyndall MW, Janjua NZ. Role of primary T-cell immunodeficiency and hepatitis B coinfection on spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C: The BC Hepatitis Testers Cohort. Journal of Viral Hepatitis, early-view.

Meng VY, Gustafson P. (2017). Inferring population size: Extending the multiplier method to incorporate multiple traits with a likelihood-based approach. Stat, early-view.


Karim ME, Gustafson P, Petkau J, Tremlett H, and the BeaMS Study Group (2016). Comparison of statistical approaches for dealing with immortal time bias in drug effectiveness studies. American Journal of Epidemiology 184, 325-335.

Liu J, Gustafson P, Huo D. (2016). Bayesian adjustment for the misclassification in both dependent and independent variables with application to a breast cancer study. Statistics in Medicine 35, 4252-4263.

Xia M, Gustafson P. (2016). Bayesian regression models adjusting for unidirectional covariate misclassification. Canadian Journal of Statistics 44, 198-218.

Goring SM, Gustafson P, Liu Y, Saab S, Cline SK, Platt RW. (2016). Disconnected by design: Analytic approach in treatment networks having no common comparator. Research Synthesis Methods 7, 420-432.

Karim ME, Gustafson P. (2016). Hypothesis Testing for an Exposure Disease Association in Case-Control Studies Under Nondifferential Exposure Misclassification in the presence of Validation Data: Bayesian and Frequentist Adjustments. Statistics in Biosciences 8, 234-252.

Zhang T, Kingwell E, De Jong H, Zhu F, Zhao Y, Carruthers R, Petkau J, Gustafson P, Oger J, Tremlett H. (2016). Association between the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and multiple sclerosis disability progression. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety 25, 1150-1159.

Falasinnu T, Gilbert M, Gustafson P, Shoveller J. (2016). An assessment of population-based screening guidelines versus clinical prediction rules for chlamydia and gonorrhea case finding. Preventive Medicine 89, 51-56.

Falasinnu T, Gilbert M, Gustafson P, Shoveller J. (2016). A validation study of a clinical prediction rule for screening asymptomatic chlamydia and gonorrhoea infections among heterosexuals in British Columbia. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 92, 12-18.


Luo H, Burstyn I, Gustafson P. (2015). Gene-environment independence in case-control studies: Issues of parameterization and Bayesian inference. Statistics in Biosciences 7, 460-475. The associated code is also available.

Gustafson P. (2015). Discussion of the article by Saarela et. al. on Bayesian estimation of marginal structural models. Biometrics 71, 291-293

Zhang T, Shirani A, Zhao Y, Karim E, Gustafson P, Petkau AJP, Evans C, Kingwell E, van der Kop M, Feng Z, Oger J, Tremlett H. (2015). Beta-interferon exposure and onset of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. European Journal of Neurology 22, 990-1000.

Shirani A, Zhao Y, Petkau AJP, Gustafson P, Karim ME, Evans C, Kingwell E, van der Kop M, Oger J, Tremlett H. (2015). Multiple sclerosis in older adults: the clinical profile and impact of interferon beta treatment. BioMed Research International vol. 2015, article ID 451912, 11 pages.

Falasinnu T, Gilbert M, Hottes TS, Gustafson P, Ogilvie G, Shoveller J. (2015). Predictors identifying those at increased risk for STDs: A theory-guided review of empirical literature and clinical guidelines. International Journal of STD & AIDS 26, 839-851.

Etminan M, Luo H, Gustafson P. (2015). Risk of intracranial hypertension with intrauterine levonorgestrel. Theraputic Advances in Drug Safety 6, 110-113.


Gustafson P, McCandless L. (2014). Commentary: Priors, parameters, and probability: A Bayesian perspective on sensitivity analysis. Epidemiology 25, 910-912.

Xia M, Gustafson P. (2014). Bayesian sensitivity analyses for hidden sub-populations with weighted sampling. Canadian Journal of Statistics 42, 436-450.

Wang D, Gustafson P. (2014) On the impact of misclassification in an ordinal exposure variable. Epidemiologic Methods 3, 97-106.

Karim ME, Gustafson P, Petkau J, Zhao Y, Shirani A, Kingwell E, Evans C, van der Kop M, Oger J, Tremlett H (2014). Marginal structural Cox models for estimating the association between beta-interferon exposure and disease progression in a multiple sclerosis cohort. American Journal of Epidemiology 180, 160-171.

Gustafson P (2014). Bayesian inference in partially identified models: Is the shape of the posterior distribution useful? Electronic Journal of Statistics 8, 476-496.

Gustafson P, Greenland S (2014). Misclassification. In Handbook of Epidemiology, 2nd Ed., W. Ahrens and I. Pigeot (Eds.), Springer, pp. 639-658.

Gustafson P (2014). Bayesian statistical methodology for observational health sciences data. In Statistics in Action: A Canadian Outlook, J. Lawless (Ed.) Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, pp. 163-176.

Sighoko D, Liu J, Hou N, Gustafson P, Huo D (2014). Discordance in hormone receptor status among primary, metastatic, and second primary breast cancers: biological difference or misclassification? The Oncologist 19, 592-601.

Falasinnu T, Gustafson P, Hottes TS, Gilbert M, Ogilvie G, Shoveller J (2014). A critical appraisal of risk models for predicting sexually transmitted infections. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 41, 321-330.

Falasinnu T, Gilbert M, Gustafson P, Shoveller J (2014). Deriving and validating a risk estimation tool for screening asymptomatic chlamydia and gonorrhea. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 41, 706-712.

Evans C, Zhu F, Kingwell E, Shirani A, van der Kop ML, Petkau J, Gustafson P, Zhao Y, Oger J, Tremlett H. (2014). Association between beta-interferon exposure and hospital events in multiple sclerosis. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety 23, 1213-12223.

Shirani A, Zhao Y, Karim ME, Petkau A, Gustafson P, Evans C, Kingwell E, van der Kop ML, Oger J, Tremlett H (2014). Investigation of heterogeneity in the association between interferon beta and disability progression in multiple sclerosis: an observational study. European Journal of Neurology 21, 845-844.


Xing L, Burstyn I, Richardson DB, Gustafson, P (2013). A comparison of Bayesian hierarchical modeling with group-based exposure assessment in occupational epidemiology. Statistics in Medicine 32, 3686-3699.

Luo H, Burstyn I, Gustafson P (2013). Costs and benefits of environmental data in investigations of gene-disease association. Epidemiology 24, 562-568.

Gustafson P, Gilbert M, Xia M, Michelow W, Robert W, Trussler T, McGuire M, Paquette D, Moore D, Gustafson R (2013). Impact of statistical adjustment for frequency of venue attendance in a venue-based survey of men who have sex with men. American Journal of Epidemiology 177, 1157-1164.

Gustafson P (2013). Bayesian analysis of frailty models. In Handbook of Survival Analysis. Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, pp. 475-.

Burstyn I, de Vocht F, Gustafson P (2013). What do measures of agreement tell us about quality of exposure assessment? Theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. BMJ Open 3, e003952.

Falasinnu T, Gustafson P, Gilbert M, Shoveller J (2013). Risk prediction in sexual health contexts: Protocol. JMIR Research Protocols 2, e57.


Gustafson P (2012). On the behavior of Bayesian credible intervals in partially identified models. Electronic Journal of Statistics 6, 2107-2124.

Wang D, Shen T, Gustafson P (2012). Partial Identification arising from nondifferential exposure misclassification: How informative are data on the unlikely, maybe, and likely exposed? International Journal of Biostatistics 8 (issue 1, article 31, 25 pages). [extra figures]

Shirani A, Zhao Y, Karim E, Evans C, Kingman E, van der Kop M, Oger J, Gustafson P, Petkau AJ, Tremlett H (2012). Association between use of interferon beta and progression of disability in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Journal of the American Medical Association 308, 247-256.

Xia M, Gustafson P (2012). A Bayesian method for estimating prevalence in the presence of a hidden sub-population. Statistics in Medicine 31, 2386-2398.

Liu J, Gustafson P (2012). Regression with Fractional Polynomials when interactions are erroneously omitted. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 142, 1348-1355.

McCandless LC, Gustafson P, Levy AR, Richardson S (2012). Hierarchical priors for bias parameters in Bayesian sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding. Statistics in Medicine 31, 383-396.

Gustafson P (2012). Double-robust estimators: Slightly more Bayesian than meets the eye? International Journal of Biostatistics 8, (issue 2, article 4, 15 pages).

MacLehose R, Gustafson P (2012). Is probabilistic bias analysis approximately Bayesian? Epidemiology 23, 151-158.

Liu J, Gustafson P (2012). On the detectability of different forms of interaction in regression models. Metrika 75, 347-365. Here is R code for doing the power calculations in the cases of independent and dependent predictors. Also, here are further plots omitted from the manuscript for the sake of brevity.


Gustafson P, Burstyn I (2011). Bayesian inference of gene-environment interaction from incomplete data: what happens when information on environment is disjoint from data on gene and disease? Statistics in Medicine 30, 877-889. An earlier technical report of September 2009 contains additional material. Also, here are the supplementary figures, and the associated R code .

Espino-Hernandez G, Gustafson P, Burstyn I (2011). Bayesian adjustment for measurement error in continuous exposures in an individually matched case-control study. BMC Medical Research Methodology 11, article 67.

Hossain S, Gustafson P (2011). Assessing large sample bias in misspecified model scenarios with reference to exposure model misspecification in errors--in--variables regression: A new computational approach. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 141, 1161-1169.


Gustafson P, McCandless LC, Levy AR, Richardson S (2010). Simplified Bayesian sensitivity analysis for mismeasured and unobserved confounders. Biometrics 66, 1129-1137.

Gustafson P (2010). Bayesian inference for partially identified models. International Journal of Biostatistics 6 (issue 2, article 17, 17 pages).

Lefebvre G, Gustafson P (2010). Impact of outcome model misspecification on regression and doubly-robust inverse probability to estimate causal effect. International Journal of Biostatistics 6 (issue 2, article 15, 25 pages). Web Appendix.

Chu R, Gustafson P, Le N (2010). Bayesian adjustment for exposure misclassification in case-control studies. Statistics in Medicine 29, 994-1003. Here is the associated R code.

Gustafson P, McCandless L (2010). Probabilistic approaches to better quantifying the results of epidemiologic studies. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 7, 1520-1539. Here is the associated R code .

Johnston K, Levy A, Lima V, Hogg R, Tyndall M, Gustafson P, Briggs A, Montaner J (2010). Expanding access to HAART: a cost-effective approach for treating and preventing HIV. AIDS 24, 1929-1935.


Gustafson P, Greenland S (2009). Interval estimation for messy observational data. Statistical Science 24, 328-342.

Gustafson P (2009). What are the limits of posterior distributions arising from nonidentified models, and why should we care? Journal of the American Statistical Association 104, 1682-1695. Technical Report Version of May 2009.

Liu J, Gustafson P, Cherry N, Burstyn I (2009). Bayesian analysis of a matched case-control study with expert prior information on both the misclassification of exposure and the exposure-disease association. Statistics in Medicine 28, 3411-3423.

Hossain S, Gustafson P (2009). Bayesian adjustment for covariate measurement errors: a flexible parametric approach. Statistics in Medicine 28, 1580-1600.

McCandless L, Gustafson P, Austin PC, Levy AR (2009). Covariate balance in a Bayesian propensity score analysis of beta-blocker therapy in heart failure patients. Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations 6:5.

McCandless L, Gustafson P, Austin PC (2009). Bayesian propensity score analysis. Statistics in Medicine 28, 94-112.


Gustafson P, Lefebvre G (2008). Bayesian multinomial regression with class-specific predictor selection. Annals of Applied Statistics 2, 1478-1502. Here is code associated with this paper.

Ferrari P, Carroll RJ, Gustafson P, Riboli E (2008). A Bayesian model for multicenter studies with exposures measured with error. Statistics in Medicine 28, 6037-6054.

Liu J, Gustafson P (2008). Average effects and omitted interactions in linear regression models. International Statistical Review 76, 419-432.

Johnston K, Gustafson P, Levy AR, Grootendorst P (2008). Use of instrumental variables in the analysis of generalized linear models in the presence of unmeasured confounding with applications to epidemiological research. Statistics in Medicine 27, 1539-1556.

McCandless LC, Gustafson P, Levy AR (2008). A sensitivity analysis using information about measured confounders yielded improved assessments of uncertainty from unmeasured confounding. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 61, 247-255.


Gustafson P (2007). Measurement error modeling with an approximate instrumental variable. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 69, 797-815. Here are the additional figures and R code associated with this paper.

McNab YC, Gustafson P (2007). Regression B-spline smoothing in Bayesian disease mapping, with an application to patient safety surveillance. Statistics in Medicine 26, 4455-4474.

Walker LJ, Gustafson P, Frimer JA (2007). The application of Bayesian analysis to issues in developmental research. International Journal of Behavioral Development 31, 366-373. Here is the R code which fits the longitudinal multinomial model described in this paper.

Gustafson P, Siddarth S (2007). Describing the dynamics of attention to TV commercials: a hierarchical Bayes analysis of the time to zap an ad. Journal of Applied Statistics 34, 585-609.

McCandless LC, Gustafson P, Levy AR (2007). Bayesian sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Statistics in Medicine 26, 2331-2347.

Gustafson P (2007). On robustness and model flexibility in survival analysis: transformed hazards models and average effects. Biometrics 63, 69-77. Here are some supplementary results (pdf) and the R function which implements fitting of the transformed hazard model.


Gustafson P, Hossain S, MacNab YC (2006). Conservative priors for hierarchical models. Canadian Journal of Statistics 34, 377-390. Here are some supplementary results not shown in the manuscript, on the application of the conservative prior to curve-fitting.

Gustafson P (2006). Sample size implications when biases are modelled rather than ignored. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 169, 883-902.

Gustafson P, Greenland S (2006). The performance of random coefficient regression in accounting for residual confounding. Biometrics 62, 760-768.

Gustafson P, Greenland S (2006). Curious phenomena in Bayesian adjustment for exposure misclassification. Statistics in Medicine 25, 87-103.

Greenland S, Gustafson P (2006). Accounting for independent nondifferential misclassification does not increase certainty than an observed association is in the correct direction. American Journal of Epidemiology 164, 63-68.

MacNab YC, Kmetic A, Gustafson P, Sheps S (2006). An innovative application of Bayesian disease mapping methods to patient safety research: a Canadian adverse medical event study. Statistics in Medicine 25, 3960-3980.

Synnes AR, MacNab YC, Qiu Z, Ohlsson A, Gustafson P, Dean CB, Lee SK (2006). Neonatal Intensive Care Unit Characteristics Affect the Incidence of Severe Intraventricular Hemorrhage. Medical Care 44, 754-759.


Gustafson P, Hossain S, McCandless L (2005). Innovative Bayesian methods for biostatistics and epidemiology. In Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 25: Bayesian Thinking, Modeling and Computation (D. Dey and C.R. Rao, Eds.), Elsevier.

Gustafson P (2005). On model expansion, model contraction, identifiability, and prior information: two illustrative scenarios involving mismeasured variables" (with discussion). Statistical Science 20, 111-140.

Gustafson P, Kazi AMR, Levy AR (2005). Extending logistic regression to model diffuse interactions. Statistics in Medicine, 24, 2089-2104. A related document is Kazi's M.Sc. thesis (gzipped postsript). R functions diffuse1() and diffuse2() implement MCMC fitting of these models.

Gustafson P (2005). The utility of prior information and stratification for parameter estimation with two screening tests but no gold standard. Statistics in Medicine 24, 1203-1217. Some supplementary results not shown in the manuscript are available: postscript or pdf

MacNab YC, Qiu Z, Gustafson P, Dean CB, Ohlsson A, Lee SK (2005). Hierarchical Bayes analysis of multilevel health services data: A Canadian neonatal mortality study. Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology 5, 5-26.


MacNab, Y.C., Farrell, P.J., Gustafson, P., and Wen, S.(2004). "Estimation in Bayesian disease mapping." Biometrics 60, 865-873.

Gustafson, P., MacNab, Y.C., and Wen, S. (2004). "On the value of derivative evaluations and random walk suppression in Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms." Statistics and Computing 14, 23-38.

Gustafson, P. and Clarke, B. (2004). "Decomposing posterior variance" Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 119, 311-327.

Gustafson, P. and Walker, L.J. (2003). "An extension of the Dirichlet prior for the analysis of longitudinal multinomial data." Journal of Applied Statistics 30, 293-310.

Gustafson, P., Aeschliman, D., and Levy, A.R. (2003). "A simple approach to fitting Bayesian survival models." Lifetime Data Analysis 9, 5-19.

Carbonetto, P., de Freitas, N., Gustafson, P., and Thompson, N. (2003). "Bayesian feature weighting for unsupervised learning, with application to object recognition." Proceedings of the Ninth International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics.

Gustafson, P. and Le, N.D. (2002). "Comparing the effects of continuous and discrete covariate mismeasurement, with emphasis on the dichtomization of mismeasured predictors." Biometrics 58, 878-887.

Gustafson, P. (2002). "On the simultaneous effects of model misspecification and errors-in-variables." Canadian Journal of Statistics 30, 463-474.

Gustafson, P, Le, N.D., and Vallee, M. (2002). "A Bayesian approach to case-control studies with errors in covariables." Biostatistics 3, 229-243.

Alqallaf, F. and Gustafson, P. (2001). "On cross-validation of Bayesian models." Canadian Journal of Statistics 29, 333-340.

Gustafson. P., Le, N.D., and Saskin, R. (2001). "Case-control analysis with partial knowledge of exposure misclassification probabilities." Biometrics 57, 598-609.

Gustafson, P. (2001). "On measuring sensitivity to parametric model misspecification." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 63, 81-94.

Walker, L.J., Gustafson, P., and Hennig, K.H. (2001). "The consolidation/transition model in moral reasoning development." Developmental Psychology 37, 187-197.

Gustafson, P. (2000). "Bayesian regression modelling with interactions and smooth effects." Journal of the American Statistical Association 95, 795-806.

Gustafson, P. (2000). "Local robustness in Bayesian analysis." In Robust Bayesian Analysis, (D. Rios Insua and F. Ruggeri, eds.). New York: Springer-Verlag, 71-88.

Gustafson, P., Le, N., Vallee, M. (2000). "Parametric Bayesian analysis of case-control data with imprecise exposure measurements." Statistics and Probability Letters 47, 357-363.

Gustafson, P. (1998). "A guided walk Metropolis algorithm." Statistics and Computing 8, 357-364.

Gustafson, P. (1998). "Flexible Bayesian modelling for survival data." Lifetime Data Analysis 4, 281-299.

Clarke, B. and Gustafson, P. (1998). "On the overall sensitivity of the posterior distribution to its inputs." Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 71, 137-150.

Gustafson, P. (1997). "Large hierarchical Bayesian analysis of multivariate survival data." Biometrics 53, 230-242.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "Local sensitivity of inferences to prior marginals." Journal of the American Statistical Association 91, 774-781.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "Local sensitivity of posterior expectations." Annals of Statistics 24, 174-195.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "The effect of mixing distribution misspecification in conjugate mixture models." Canadian Journal of Statistics 24, 307-318.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "Model influence functions based on mixtures." Canadian Journal of Statistics 24, 535-548.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "Robustness considerations in Bayesian analysis." Statistical Methods in Medical Research 5, 357-373.

Gustafson, P. (1996). "Aspects of Bayesian robustness in hierarchical models." In Proceedings of the Workshop on Bayesian Robustness, May 1995, Rimini, Italy, Berger, J.O., Betro, B., Moreno, E., Pericchi, L.R., Ruggeri, F., Salinetti, G., Wasserman, (Eds.), pp. 63-77. IMS Lecture Notes-Monograph Series, Volume 29.

Gustafson, P., Srinivasan, C., and Wasserman, L. (1996). "Local sensitivity analysis." In Bayesian Statistics 5. Proceedings of the Fifth Valencia International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, Bernardo, J.M., Berger, J.O., Dawid, A.P., Smith, A.F.M. (Eds.), pp. 197-210. Oxford University Press.

Gustafson, P. (1995). "A Bayesian analysis of bivariate survival data from a multicentre cancer clinical trial." Statistics in Medicine 14, 2523-2535.

Gustafson, P. and Wasserman, L. (1995). "Local sensitivity diagnostics for Bayesian inference." Annals of Statistics 23, 2153-2167.