PUBLICATION PAGE

**Books**

Gustafson P. (2015).
*Bayesian Inference in Partially Identified Models: Exploring the
Limits of Limited Data.*
Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.

Gustafson P. (2003).
* Measurement Error and Misclassification in Statistics and
Epidemiology: Impacts and Bayesian Adjustments.*
Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.

**Articles**

**2017 and Early-View**

McCandless LC, Gustafson P.
A comparison of Bayesian and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding.
* Statistics in Medicine*, early-view.

Karim ME, Petkau J, Gustafson P, Platt RW, Tremlett H and the
BeAMS study group.
Comparison of statistical approaches dealing with
time-dependent confounding in drug effectiveness studies.
* Statistical Methods in Medical Research*, early-view.

Karim ME, Petkau J, Gustafson P, Tremlett H and the BeAMS study group.
On the application of statistical learning approaches
to construct inverse probability weights in marginal
structural Cox models:
Hedging against weight-model misspecification.
*Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation*,
early-view.

Islam N, Krajden M, Shoveller J,
Gustafson P, Gilbert M, Buxton JA,
Wong J, Tyndall MW, Janjua NZ and the BC-HTC team.
Incidence, risk factors, and prevention of hepatitis C reinfection:
A population-based cohort study.
* The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology*,
eary-view.

Islam N, Krajden M, Gilbert M, Gustafson P, Yu A, Kuo M, Chong M, Alvarez M,
Wong J, Tyndall MW, Janjua NZ.
Role of primary T-cell immunodeficiency and
hepatitis B coinfection on spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C:
The BC Hepatitis Testers Cohort.
*Journal of Viral Hepatitis*,
early-view.

Meng VY, Gustafson P. (2017).
Inferring population size:
Extending the multiplier method to incorporate multiple traits with a
likelihood-based approach.
* Stat*, early-view.

**2016**

Karim ME, Gustafson P, Petkau J, Tremlett H, and the BeaMS Study Group (2016).
Comparison of statistical approaches for dealing with immortal time bias in drug effectiveness studies.
* American Journal of Epidemiology* 184, 325-335.

Liu J, Gustafson P, Huo D. (2016).
Bayesian adjustment for the misclassification in both dependent and
independent variables with application to a breast cancer study.
* Statistics in Medicine* 35, 4252-4263.

Xia M, Gustafson P. (2016).
Bayesian regression models adjusting for unidirectional covariate
misclassification.
*Canadian Journal of Statistics* 44, 198-218.

Goring SM, Gustafson P, Liu Y, Saab S, Cline SK, Platt RW. (2016).
Disconnected by design: Analytic approach in treatment networks having no common comparator.
*Research Synthesis Methods* 7, 420-432.

Karim ME, Gustafson P. (2016).
Hypothesis Testing for an Exposure
Disease Association in Case-Control Studies Under Nondifferential Exposure
Misclassification in the presence of
Validation Data: Bayesian and Frequentist Adjustments.
*Statistics in Biosciences* 8, 234-252.

Zhang T,
Kingwell E,
De Jong H,
Zhu F,
Zhao Y,
Carruthers R,
Petkau J,
Gustafson P,
Oger J,
Tremlett H. (2016).
Association between the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and multiple sclerosis disability progression.
*Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety* 25, 1150-1159.

Falasinnu T, Gilbert M, Gustafson P, Shoveller J. (2016).
An assessment of population-based screening guidelines versus clinical
prediction rules for chlamydia and gonorrhea case finding.
*Preventive Medicine* 89, 51-56.

Falasinnu T, Gilbert M, Gustafson P, Shoveller J. (2016).
A validation study of a clinical prediction rule for screening asymptomatic chlamydia and gonorrhoea infections among heterosexuals in British Columbia.
*Sexually Transmitted Diseases* 92, 12-18.

**2015**

Luo H, Burstyn I, Gustafson P. (2015).
Gene-environment independence in case-control studies: Issues of
parameterization and Bayesian inference.
*Statistics in Biosciences* 7, 460-475.
The
associated code
is also available.

Gustafson P. (2015).
Discussion
of the
article by Saarela et. al.
on Bayesian estimation of marginal structural models.
*Biometrics* 71, 291-293

Zhang T, Shirani A, Zhao Y, Karim E, Gustafson P, Petkau AJP, Evans C, Kingwell E, van der Kop M, Feng Z, Oger J, Tremlett H. (2015).
Beta-interferon exposure and onset of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.
*European Journal of Neurology* 22, 990-1000.

Shirani A, Zhao Y, Petkau AJP, Gustafson P, Karim ME, Evans C, Kingwell E, van der Kop M, Oger J, Tremlett H. (2015).
Multiple sclerosis in older adults: the clinical profile and impact of interferon beta treatment.
*BioMed Research International* vol. 2015, article ID 451912, 11 pages.

Falasinnu T, Gilbert M, Hottes TS, Gustafson P, Ogilvie G, Shoveller J. (2015).
Predictors identifying those at increased risk for STDs: A theory-guided
review of empirical literature and clinical guidelines.
*International Journal of STD & AIDS* 26, 839-851.

Etminan M, Luo H, Gustafson P. (2015).
Risk of intracranial hypertension with intrauterine levonorgestrel.
*Theraputic Advances in Drug Safety* 6, 110-113.

**2014**

Gustafson P, McCandless L. (2014).
Commentary: Priors, parameters, and probability: A Bayesian perspective on
sensitivity analysis.
*Epidemiology* 25, 910-912.

Xia M, Gustafson P. (2014).
Bayesian sensitivity analyses for hidden sub-populations with weighted
sampling.
*Canadian Journal of Statistics* 42, 436-450.

Wang D, Gustafson P. (2014)
On the impact of misclassification in an ordinal exposure variable.
*Epidemiologic Methods* 3, 97-106.

Karim ME,
Gustafson P,
Petkau J,
Zhao Y,
Shirani A,
Kingwell E,
Evans C,
van der Kop M,
Oger J,
Tremlett H (2014).
Marginal structural Cox models for estimating the association
between beta-interferon exposure and disease progression in a
multiple sclerosis cohort.
*American Journal of Epidemiology* 180, 160-171.

Gustafson P (2014).
Bayesian inference in partially identified models:
Is the shape of the posterior distribution useful?
*Electronic Journal of Statistics* 8, 476-496.

Gustafson P, Greenland S (2014). Misclassification.
In
*Handbook of Epidemiology, 2nd Ed.*,
W. Ahrens and I. Pigeot (Eds.), Springer, pp. 639-658.

Gustafson P (2014). Bayesian statistical methodology for observational health sciences data. In
*Statistics in Action: A Canadian Outlook*,
J. Lawless (Ed.) Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, pp. 163-176.

Sighoko D, Liu J, Hou N, Gustafson P, Huo D (2014).
Discordance in hormone receptor status among primary, metastatic, and second
primary breast cancers: biological difference or misclassification?
* The Oncologist* 19, 592-601.

Falasinnu T, Gustafson P, Hottes TS, Gilbert M, Ogilvie G, Shoveller J (2014).
A critical appraisal of risk models for predicting sexually transmitted
infections.
*Sexually Transmitted Diseases* 41, 321-330.

Falasinnu T, Gilbert M, Gustafson P, Shoveller J (2014).
Deriving and validating a risk estimation tool for screening
asymptomatic chlamydia and gonorrhea.
*Sexually Transmitted Diseases* 41, 706-712.

Evans C, Zhu F, Kingwell E, Shirani A, van der Kop ML, Petkau J, Gustafson P,
Zhao Y, Oger J, Tremlett H. (2014).
Association between beta-interferon exposure and hospital events in multiple
sclerosis.
* Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety* 23, 1213-12223.

Shirani A, Zhao Y, Karim ME, Petkau A, Gustafson P, Evans C, Kingwell E,
van der Kop ML, Oger J, Tremlett H (2014).
Investigation of heterogeneity in the association between interferon beta and
disability progression in multiple sclerosis: an observational study.
*European Journal of Neurology* 21, 845-844.

**2013**

Xing L, Burstyn I, Richardson DB, Gustafson, P (2013).
A comparison of Bayesian hierarchical modeling with group-based
exposure assessment in occupational epidemiology.
*Statistics in Medicine* 32, 3686-3699.

Luo H, Burstyn I, Gustafson P (2013).
Costs and benefits of environmental data
in investigations of gene-disease association.
*Epidemiology* 24, 562-568.

Gustafson P, Gilbert M, Xia M, Michelow W, Robert W, Trussler T,
McGuire M, Paquette D, Moore D, Gustafson R (2013).
Impact of statistical adjustment for frequency
of venue attendance in a venue-based survey
of men who have sex with men.
*American Journal of Epidemiology* 177, 1157-1164.

Gustafson P (2013).
Bayesian analysis of frailty models.
In *Handbook of Survival Analysis*. Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, pp. 475-.

Burstyn I, de Vocht F, Gustafson P (2013).
What do measures of agreement tell us about quality of exposure assessment?
Theoretical analysis and numerical simulation.
*BMJ Open* 3, e003952.

Falasinnu T, Gustafson P, Gilbert M, Shoveller J (2013).
Risk prediction in sexual health contexts: Protocol.
*JMIR Research Protocols* 2, e57.

**2012**

Gustafson P (2012).
On the behavior of Bayesian credible
intervals in partially identified models.
*Electronic Journal of Statistics* 6, 2107-2124.

Wang D, Shen T, Gustafson P (2012).
Partial Identification arising from nondifferential
exposure misclassification: How informative are data on the
unlikely, maybe, and likely exposed?
*International Journal of Biostatistics* 8 (issue 1, article 31,
25 pages).
[extra figures]

Shirani A, Zhao Y, Karim E, Evans C, Kingman E,
van der Kop M, Oger J, Gustafson P, Petkau AJ,
Tremlett H (2012).
Association between use of interferon beta and
progression of disability in patients with
relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.
*Journal of the American Medical Association* 308, 247-256.

Xia M, Gustafson P (2012).
A Bayesian method for estimating prevalence
in the presence of a hidden sub-population.
*Statistics in Medicine* 31, 2386-2398.

Liu J, Gustafson P (2012).
Regression with Fractional Polynomials when
interactions are erroneously omitted.
*Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference* 142,
1348-1355.

McCandless LC, Gustafson P, Levy AR, Richardson S (2012).
Hierarchical priors for bias parameters in Bayesian
sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding.
*Statistics in Medicine* 31, 383-396.

Gustafson P (2012).
Double-robust estimators: Slightly more Bayesian than meets the eye?
*International Journal of Biostatistics* 8,
(issue 2, article 4, 15 pages).

MacLehose R, Gustafson P (2012).
Is probabilistic bias analysis
approximately Bayesian?
*Epidemiology* 23, 151-158.

Liu J, Gustafson P (2012).
On the detectability of different forms of interaction in regression models.
*Metrika* 75, 347-365.
Here is R code for doing the power calculations in the
cases of
independent
and
dependent
predictors. Also,
here are
further plots omitted from the manuscript for the sake of brevity.

** 2011**

Gustafson P, Burstyn I (2011).
Bayesian inference of gene-environment interaction from incomplete data: what happens when information on environment is disjoint from data on gene and disease?
* Statistics in Medicine* 30, 877-889.
An earlier
technical report of September 2009 contains additional material.
Also, here are the
supplementary figures, and the associated R code
.

Espino-Hernandez G, Gustafson P, Burstyn I (2011).
Bayesian adjustment for measurement error in continuous
exposures in an individually matched case-control study.
*BMC Medical Research Methodology* 11, article 67.

Hossain S, Gustafson P (2011).
Assessing large sample bias in misspecified model scenarios with reference
to exposure model misspecification in errors--in--variables regression:
A new computational approach.
*Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference* 141, 1161-1169.

**2010**

Gustafson P, McCandless LC, Levy AR, Richardson S (2010).
Simplified Bayesian sensitivity analysis for mismeasured and
unobserved confounders.
*Biometrics* 66, 1129-1137.

Gustafson P (2010).
Bayesian inference for partially identified models.
*International Journal of Biostatistics* 6
(issue 2, article 17, 17 pages).

Lefebvre G, Gustafson P (2010).
Impact of outcome model misspecification on regression and
doubly-robust inverse probability to estimate causal effect.
*International Journal of Biostatistics* 6
(issue 2, article 15, 25 pages).
Web Appendix.

Chu R, Gustafson P, Le N (2010).
Bayesian adjustment for exposure misclassification in
case-control studies.
*Statistics in Medicine*
29, 994-1003. Here is the
associated R code.

Gustafson P, McCandless L (2010).
Probabilistic approaches to better quantifying the results
of epidemiologic studies.
*International Journal of
Environmental Research and Public Health* 7, 1520-1539.
Here is the
associated R code
.

Johnston K, Levy A, Lima V, Hogg R, Tyndall M, Gustafson P,
Briggs A, Montaner J (2010). Expanding access to HAART: a cost-effective approach for treating and preventing HIV. *AIDS* 24, 1929-1935.

**2009**

Gustafson P, Greenland S (2009).
Interval estimation for messy observational data.
*Statistical Science*
24, 328-342.

Gustafson P (2009).
What are the limits of posterior distributions arising from nonidentified
models, and why should we care?
*Journal of the American Statistical Association* 104, 1682-1695.
Technical Report Version of May 2009.

Liu J, Gustafson P, Cherry N, Burstyn I (2009).
Bayesian analysis of a matched case-control study with expert prior information on both the misclassification of exposure and the exposure-disease association.
*Statistics in Medicine* 28, 3411-3423.

Hossain S, Gustafson P (2009).
Bayesian adjustment for covariate measurement errors: a flexible parametric approach.
*Statistics in Medicine* 28, 1580-1600.

McCandless L, Gustafson P, Austin PC, Levy AR (2009).
Covariate balance in a Bayesian propensity score analysis of beta-blocker therapy in heart failure patients.
* Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations* 6:5.

McCandless L, Gustafson P, Austin PC (2009).
Bayesian propensity score analysis.
*Statistics in Medicine* 28, 94-112.

**2008**

Gustafson P, Lefebvre G (2008).
Bayesian multinomial regression with class-specific predictor selection.
*Annals of Applied Statistics* 2, 1478-1502.
Here is
code
associated with
this paper.

Ferrari P, Carroll RJ, Gustafson P, Riboli E (2008).
A Bayesian model for multicenter studies with exposures measured with error.
*Statistics in Medicine* 28, 6037-6054.

Liu J, Gustafson P (2008).
Average effects and omitted interactions in linear regression models.
* International Statistical Review* 76, 419-432.

Johnston K, Gustafson P, Levy AR, Grootendorst P (2008).
Use of instrumental variables in the analysis of generalized linear models
in the presence of unmeasured confounding with applications to
epidemiological research.
*Statistics in Medicine* 27, 1539-1556.

McCandless LC,
Gustafson P,
Levy AR (2008).
A sensitivity analysis using information about measured confounders yielded
improved assessments of uncertainty from
unmeasured confounding.
*Journal of Clinical Epidemiology* 61, 247-255.

**2007**

Gustafson P (2007).
Measurement error modeling with an approximate instrumental variable.
* Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B* 69, 797-815.
Here are the
additional figures and R code
associated with
this paper.

McNab YC, Gustafson P (2007).
Regression B-spline smoothing
in Bayesian disease mapping, with an application
to patient safety surveillance.
*Statistics in Medicine* 26, 4455-4474.

Walker LJ, Gustafson P, Frimer JA (2007).
The application of Bayesian analysis to issues in developmental research.
*International Journal of Behavioral Development* 31, 366-373.
Here is
the
R code
which fits the longitudinal multinomial model described in
this paper.

Gustafson P, Siddarth S (2007).
Describing the dynamics of attention to TV commercials:
a hierarchical Bayes analysis of the time to zap an ad.
* Journal of Applied Statistics* 34, 585-609.

McCandless LC,
Gustafson P,
Levy AR (2007).
Bayesian sensitivity analysis
for unmeasured confounding
in observational studies.
*Statistics in Medicine* 26, 2331-2347.

Gustafson P (2007).
On robustness and model flexibility in
survival analysis: transformed hazards models and average effects.
*Biometrics* 63, 69-77.
Here are some
supplementary results
(pdf)
and the
R function
which implements fitting of the transformed hazard model.

**2006**

Gustafson P, Hossain S, MacNab YC (2006).
Conservative priors for hierarchical models.
* Canadian Journal of Statistics* 34, 377-390.
Here are some
supplementary results
not shown in the manuscript,
on the application of the conservative prior to curve-fitting.

Gustafson P (2006).
Sample size implications when biases are modelled rather than ignored.
* Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A* 169, 883-902.

Gustafson P, Greenland S (2006).
The performance of random coefficient regression in
accounting for residual confounding.
* Biometrics* 62, 760-768.

Gustafson P, Greenland S (2006).
Curious phenomena in Bayesian adjustment
for exposure misclassification.
* Statistics in Medicine* 25, 87-103.

Greenland S, Gustafson P (2006).
Accounting for independent nondifferential misclassification
does not increase certainty than an observed association is in the correct direction.
*American Journal of Epidemiology* 164, 63-68.

MacNab YC, Kmetic A,
Gustafson P, Sheps S (2006).
An innovative application of Bayesian disease mapping methods to patient safety research: a Canadian adverse medical event study.
*Statistics in Medicine* 25, 3960-3980.

Synnes AR,
MacNab YC,
Qiu Z,
Ohlsson A,
Gustafson P,
Dean CB,
Lee SK (2006).
Neonatal Intensive Care Unit Characteristics Affect the Incidence of Severe Intraventricular Hemorrhage.
* Medical Care* 44, 754-759.

**2005**

Gustafson P, Hossain S, McCandless L (2005).
Innovative Bayesian methods for biostatistics and epidemiology.
In *Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 25: Bayesian Thinking,
Modeling and Computation*
(D. Dey and C.R. Rao, Eds.), Elsevier.

Gustafson P (2005).
On model expansion, model contraction, identifiability, and prior
information: two illustrative scenarios involving mismeasured
variables" (with discussion).
* Statistical Science*
20, 111-140.

Gustafson P, Kazi AMR, Levy AR (2005).
Extending logistic regression to model diffuse interactions.
*Statistics in Medicine*, 24, 2089-2104.
A related document is
Kazi's M.Sc. thesis
(gzipped postsript).
R functions
diffuse1()
and
diffuse2()
implement MCMC fitting of these models.

Gustafson P (2005).
The utility of prior information and stratification
for parameter estimation with two screening tests but no gold standard.
*Statistics in Medicine* 24, 1203-1217.
Some supplementary results not shown in the manuscript are
available:
postscript
or
pdf

MacNab YC, Qiu Z, Gustafson P,
Dean CB, Ohlsson A, Lee SK (2005).
Hierarchical Bayes analysis of multilevel health services data: A
Canadian neonatal mortality study.
*Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology* 5, 5-26.

**Earlier**

MacNab, Y.C., Farrell, P.J., Gustafson, P., and Wen, S.(2004).
"Estimation in Bayesian disease mapping."
* Biometrics* 60, 865-873.

Gustafson, P., MacNab, Y.C., and Wen, S. (2004).
"On the value of derivative evaluations and random walk suppression in
Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms."
* Statistics and Computing * 14, 23-38.

Gustafson, P. and Clarke, B. (2004).
"Decomposing posterior variance"
* Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference * 119, 311-327.

Gustafson, P. and Walker, L.J. (2003).
"An extension of the Dirichlet prior for the analysis of longitudinal
multinomial data."
* Journal of Applied Statistics * 30, 293-310.

Gustafson, P., Aeschliman, D., and Levy, A.R. (2003).
"A simple approach to fitting Bayesian survival models."
* Lifetime Data Analysis * 9, 5-19.

Carbonetto, P., de Freitas, N., Gustafson, P., and Thompson, N. (2003).
"Bayesian feature weighting for unsupervised learning, with application
to object recognition."
*Proceedings of the Ninth International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence
and Statistics*.

Gustafson, P. and Le, N.D. (2002).
"Comparing the effects of continuous and discrete covariate mismeasurement,
with emphasis on the dichtomization of mismeasured predictors."
* Biometrics * 58, 878-887.

Gustafson, P. (2002).
"On the simultaneous effects of model misspecification and
errors-in-variables."
* Canadian Journal of Statistics * 30, 463-474.

Gustafson, P, Le, N.D., and Vallee, M. (2002).
"A Bayesian approach to case-control studies with errors in covariables."
* Biostatistics *
3, 229-243.

Alqallaf, F. and Gustafson, P. (2001).
"On cross-validation of Bayesian models."
* Canadian Journal of Statistics *
29, 333-340.

Gustafson. P., Le, N.D., and Saskin, R. (2001).
"Case-control analysis with partial knowledge of exposure misclassification
probabilities."
* Biometrics * 57, 598-609.

Gustafson, P. (2001).
"On measuring sensitivity to parametric model misspecification."
* Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B *
63, 81-94.

Walker, L.J., Gustafson, P., and Hennig, K.H. (2001).
"The consolidation/transition model in moral reasoning development."
* Developmental Psychology *
37, 187-197.

Gustafson, P. (2000).
"Bayesian regression modelling with interactions and smooth effects."
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*
95, 795-806.

Gustafson, P. (2000).
"Local robustness in Bayesian analysis."
In
*Robust Bayesian Analysis*,
(D. Rios Insua and F. Ruggeri, eds.).
New York: Springer-Verlag, 71-88.

Gustafson, P., Le, N., Vallee, M. (2000).
"Parametric Bayesian analysis of case-control data with imprecise
exposure measurements."
*Statistics and Probability Letters*
47, 357-363.

Gustafson, P. (1998). "A guided walk Metropolis algorithm."
*Statistics and Computing*
8, 357-364.

Gustafson, P. (1998). "Flexible Bayesian modelling for survival data."
*Lifetime Data Analysis*
4, 281-299.

Clarke, B. and Gustafson, P. (1998).
"On the overall sensitivity of the posterior distribution to its inputs."
*Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference*
71, 137-150.

Gustafson, P. (1997).
"Large hierarchical Bayesian analysis of
multivariate survival data."
*Biometrics*
53, 230-242.

Gustafson, P. (1996).
"Local sensitivity of inferences to prior
marginals."
*Journal of the American Statistical Association*
91, 774-781.

Gustafson, P. (1996).
"Local sensitivity of posterior expectations."
*Annals of Statistics*
24, 174-195.

Gustafson, P. (1996).
"The effect of mixing distribution misspecification
in conjugate mixture models."
*Canadian Journal of Statistics*
24, 307-318.

Gustafson, P. (1996).
"Model influence functions based on mixtures."
*Canadian Journal of Statistics*
24, 535-548.

Gustafson, P. (1996).
"Robustness considerations in Bayesian analysis."
*Statistical Methods in Medical Research*
5, 357-373.

Gustafson, P. (1996).
"Aspects of Bayesian robustness in hierarchical models."
In
*Proceedings of the Workshop on Bayesian Robustness, May 1995,
Rimini, Italy*, Berger, J.O., Betro, B., Moreno, E., Pericchi, L.R.,
Ruggeri, F., Salinetti, G., Wasserman, (Eds.), pp. 63-77. IMS
Lecture Notes-Monograph Series, Volume 29.

Gustafson, P., Srinivasan, C., and Wasserman, L. (1996).
"Local sensitivity analysis."
In
*Bayesian Statistics 5. Proceedings of the Fifth Valencia
International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics*, Bernardo, J.M.,
Berger, J.O., Dawid, A.P., Smith, A.F.M. (Eds.), pp. 197-210.
Oxford University Press.

Gustafson, P. (1995).
"A Bayesian analysis of bivariate survival data from a multicentre
cancer clinical trial."
*Statistics in Medicine*
14, 2523-2535.

Gustafson, P. and Wasserman, L. (1995).
"Local sensitivity diagnostics for Bayesian inference."
*Annals of Statistics*
23, 2153-2167.