Conditional extremes in asymmetric financial markets

Subscribe to email list

Please select the email list(s) to which you wish to subscribe.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Image CAPTCHA

Enter the characters shown in the image.

User menu

You are here

Conditional extremes in asymmetric financial markets

TitleConditional extremes in asymmetric financial markets
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2018
AuthorsNolde, N, Zhang, J
JournalJournal of Business & Economic Statistics
Abstract

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 revealed the great extent to which systemic risk can jeopardize the stability of the entire financial system. An effective methodology to quantify systemic risk is at the heart of the process of identifying the so-called systemically important financial institutions for regulatory purposes as well as to investigate key drivers of systemic contagion. The article proposes a method for dynamic forecasting of CoVaR, a popular measure of systemic risk. As a first step, we develop a semi-parametric framework using asymptotic results in the spirit of extreme value theory (EVT) to model the conditional probability distribution of a bivariate random vector given that one of the components takes on a large value, taking into account important features of financial data such as asymmetry and heavy tails. In the second step, we embed the proposed EVT method into a dynamic framework via a bivariate GARCH process. An empirical analysis is conducted to demonstrate and compare the performance of the proposed methodology relative to a very flexible fully parametric alternative.