Um modelo bayesiano para investigação de sobremortalidade durante epidemia de dengue na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 2007-2008

Subscribe to email list

Please select the email list(s) to which you wish to subscribe.

You are here

Um modelo bayesiano para investigação de sobremortalidade durante epidemia de dengue na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 2007-2008

TitleUm modelo bayesiano para investigação de sobremortalidade durante epidemia de dengue na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 2007-2008
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsMalhão, TA, Casquilho-Resende, CM, Gamerman, D, Medronho, RA
JournalCadernos de Saúde Pública
Volume29
Pagination2057 - 2070
Date Published10
ISSN0102-311X
KeywordsDengue; Communicable Diseases; Mortality; Epidemiological Surveillance
Abstract

The aim of this study was to investigate excess mortality from dengue in Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during an epidemic in 2007-2008. A Poisson dynamic model was tested to predict the number of deaths during these epidemic years. Inference was conducted with a Bayesian approach. Excess mortality was detected in March 2008 in children < 15 years. In addition, the highest number of reported dengue cases in Rio de Janeiro was in March and April 2008. Since the increase in mortality should be preceded by an increase in morbidity, one can hypothesize that there was excess mortality from dengue in children during the epidemic in Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro in March 2008.

URLhttp://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2013001000022&nrm=iso
Short TitleA Bayesian model to investigate excess mortality during the dengue epidemic in Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2007-2008