I will present a patented application of a statistical model for time series in connection with monitoring of warfarin treatment.
Anticoagulant monitoring is done by measurements of the International Normalized Ratio (INR) in bloodsamples in order to maintain INR within a certain terapeutic interval.
A noticeable between patients variation in response to warfarin entails individual dosing and frequent monitoring of the INR.
We have developed a monitoring algorithm based on a non-linear state space model using the Kalman filter to provide individualized dose suggestions. The model handles between-patients variations in dosage and in sensitivity to changes in dose, and also variations over time in dosage within-patient.
In my talk I will discuss the model and our retrospective and prospective validation of safety and the impact of the model on treatment quality. Also I will discuss my personal motivation to be involved in this research. Throughout the talk I will try to relate this project to the work I did, when I was so fortunate to visit UBC.
As this visit was in 1993/94 it can be expected that I will illustrate the talk with nearly 25 years old photos.