Modeling the clinical progression of HIV-positive patients in British Columbia (BC) during their last five years of life prior to death

Objective:
We aimed to model the progression of CD4 cell count and the number of emergency department visits during the five years prior to death. Secondarily, we examined the potential factors that may explain the trajectories in these two outcomes.

Methods:
We fitted a linear mixed effect model for CD4 cell count, and we fitted a generalized mixed effect model with Poisson distribution for the number of emergency department visits.

Conclusions:
It was showed that CD4 cell counts of patients declined steeply in the five years prior to death, and negatively associated with the number of emergency department visits. The multivariable models showed the patients had a history of IDU had a significantly worse clinical progression.