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Modeling residential electricity expenditure in Mexico as a function of income and use of air conditioning

Tuesday, July 2, 2019 - 11:00 to 12:00
Mar Bazua-Lobato, UBC Statistics M.Sc. student
Statistics Seminar

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), "the growth in global demand for space cooling is one of the most critical yet often overlooked energy issues of our time". This growth in demand is mainly driven by economic and population growth in hot countries.

This project focuses on the economic growth aspect and its impact on electricity consumption in Mexico. A sensitivity analysis to study the relationship between a residence’s electricity expenditure and their income and presence of air conditioning was carried out. Depending on the state in Mexico, a linear model or a combination of a linear model and classification model were used.
The analysis shows that income increases of 5%, 10%, 15%, and to the median would result in mean electricity expenditure increases of 2%, 4%, 6%, and 9% respectively.