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Projecting the uncertainty of sea level rise using climate models and statistical downscaling

Tuesday, March 24, 2015 - 15:30
Professor Peter Guttorp - Constance van Eeden Invited Speaker
Statistics Seminar
Lecture Theatre 102, Michael Smith Laboratories (2185 East Mall)

Most global climate models do not estimate sea level directly. A semi-empirical approach is to relate sea level change to temperature, and then apply this relationship to climate model projections of temperature for different future scenarios. Another possibility is to estimate the relationship between global mean temperature in historical runs of a model, and instead apply this relationship to future temperature projections. We compare these two methods to estimate global annual mean sea level, and assess the resulting uncertainty.

Of more practical importance is to estimate local sea level. We exemplify this by developing models for projected sea level rise in Vancouver and Washington State, and illustrate different sources of uncertainty in the projections.

Information on the Constance van Eeden fund can be found here.

Please click here to see a video of and slides from Professor Guttorp's March 24th talk!