Statistics for Satellite Conjunctions

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Abstract: The current and projected growth of the space industry has brought risk assessment for near-space encounters into sharper focus.  The dominant paradigm is the computation of a so-called collision probability, but this has a number of drawbacks, including a `dilution paradox'. I shall describe an alternative statistically-based approach to the problem that seems to have numerous advantages over existing procedures, though it brings some issues of its own.  The work is joint with Soumaya Elkantassi, Russell Carpenter and Matt Hejduk.